*AAKASHAYA PATRA WEEKLY
MARKET OVERVIEW:* 12.04.2020
It was not only a truncated week but one with full of gap ups and
gap downs. This week Volatility Index IndiaVIX dropped by another 11% on the back
of 21% drop last week, which propelled the Rally for this week. This week
started on a very bullish note on Tuesday, negating the bearishness of last
Friday, when the Nifty formed a Bullish Kicking Line pattern. Weekly timeframe
too suggests similar Bullish formation,which helped the Nifty close the week
above the 20dma for the first time since February;thereby reversing the Short
Term Trend to Bullish. One should remember that it is only short term Pull-Back
in long term Downtrend. Hence one should consider this as a Pull-Back Rally and
the levels for that are placed at Nifty 9390-9970-10551. The current Rally will
gain further strength if there is positive news from the Corona front
Technically
Speaking :-
On
the daily charts, both the indices have formed a real white body candle. On
Monday, both the indices formed a Bullish Kicking Line pattern, which confirmed
a Bullish Reversal. On the weekly charts, both Sensex and Nifty have formed a
Closing White body Marubuzo, which is confirming Bullish Reversal for the
Bullish Harami formed last week. In fact, even the weekly formation can also be
construed as Bullish Kicking pattern. Thus daily as well as weekly formations
suggest continuation of Bullish bias in the near term.
The Market is under a Pull-Back after Sensex made an intermediate
bottom at 25638 and Nifty 7511. The Pull-Back levels are placed at Sensex 31993-33956-35918
and Nifty 9390-9970-10551.
If the current Pull-Back gathers further strength then, both the
indices will face strong Resistance Zone at the Bearish Gap between Sensex 34769-35109
and Nifty 10159-10294. On the downside, if Nifty closes below 8476, then it can
go all the way down to 7511-6149
For the first time since February, the indices have managed a close
above the Short term average of 20dma (Sensex - 29873 and Nifty - 8727),
thereby reversing the Short Term Trend to positive. Both the indices continue to
remain below the Medium term average of 50dma (Sensex - 36032 and Nifty 10556)
and even the Long term average of 200dma (Sensex - 38483 and Nifty - 11365). Thus
the Trend in the Short term has become Positive whereas the Trend in the Medium
term as well as Long term Timeframe continues to remain Bearish
MACD and Price ROC both continue in Buy mode. RSI (47) suggests
Bearish Momentum. Stochastic Oscillator %K (80) is above %D and hence continues
in Buy mode. ADX (50) suggests Downtrend is now undergoing consolidation.
Directional Indicators are in Sell mode as +DI is below -DI. OBV continues in
Sell mode, making lower top lower bottom formation. Sell signal in Bollinger
Band has been neglated. MFI (61) suggests Positive Money Flow. Thus Oscillators
are suggesting a Bullish bias.
Options
data for April series indicate highest Call Open Interest at 10000 followed by
9500 strike. Highest Put build-up is at the strike of 8000 followed by 8500.
Thus Options data suggest a trading range with Resistance at 9500 and Support
at 8500.
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