*AAKASHAYA PATRA WEEKLY
MARKET OVERVIEW:* 05.04.2020
As expected the Pull-Back fizzled
out without adding much to its upward tally. The truncated week saw the Market
give up all the positiveness of the previous week and ending at the lows of the
week. Nifty is precariously hanging above 8000 levels,which does not instil any
confidence amongst Market participants. A possible retest of the bottom at
Nifty 7511 looks on the cards. A break can take the Nifty down to 6825-6144.
Two minor positives for the week were the Volatility Index India VIX cooling
down by almost 21% and the drop in stock prices accompanied by reduced volumes.
These can aid in moving the Market higher,provided if the extended weekend sees
some positive news flow coming in from the Corona front.
Technically
Speaking :-
Sensex opened the week at 29226,
made a high of 29770, low of 27500 and closed the week at 27590. Thus it closed
the week with a loss of 2225 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week
at 8385, made a high of 8678, low of 8055 and closed the week at 8083. Thus the
Nifty closed the week with a loss of 577 points.
On the daily charts, both the
indices have formed Opening Black body Marubuzo for last two consecutive
trading sessions. On the weekly charts, both the Sensex and Nifty have formed a
Bearish Harami but that cannot be given significance as it has formed in a
Downtrend. Thus candlestick pattern study suggests a bearish bias.
The Market is under a Pull-Back
which started last week after falling for more than 4900 points on Nifty with
Sensex making an intermediate bottom at 25638 and Nifty 7511. The Pull-Back
levels are placed at Sensex 31993-33956-35918 and Nifty 9390-9970-10551. The
Pull-Back as of now seems to have fizzled out as the Nifty has dropped to
almost 8000 levels. Thus the down trend continues and it is a matter of time
when the indices retreat to the test the intermediate bottoms at Sensex 25638
and Nifty 7511.
In case the current Pull-Back
gathers steam then, both the indices will face strong Resistance Zone at the
Bearish Gap between Sensex 34769-35109 and Nifty 10159-10294. On the downside,if
Nifty closes the March month below 8432, then it can go all the way down to
6110.This week, both the indices have closed well below the Short term average
of 20dma (Sensex -30901 and Nifty - 9030), Medium term average of 50dma (Sensex
- 36692 and Nifty 10754) and
even the Long term average of
200dma (Sensex - 38615 and Nifty - 11408). Thus the Trend in the Short term,
Medium term as well as Long term Timeframe continues to remain Bearish.
MACD is in Buy mode whereas Price
ROC is negative and continues in Sell mode. RSI (33) suggests Bearish Momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator %K (32) is above %D and hence in Buy mode.ADX (57)
suggests Downtrend is over matured and may now undergo consolidation.
Directional Indicators are in Sell mode as +DI is below -DI. OBV continues in
Sell mode, making lower top lower bottom formation. Bollinger Band continues in
Sell mode. MFI (33) suggests Negative Money Flow. Thus Oscillators are suggesting
mixed bias.
Options data for April series
indicate highest Call Open Interest at 9000 and highest Put buildup is at the
strike of 8000. Thus Options data suggests a trading range with Resistance at
9000 and Support at 8000.
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