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*AAKASHAYA PATRA WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW:* 22.03.2020
Week on week, the story keeps repeating; highest weekly loss of around 4200 for the Sensex and around 1200 points for the Nifty, still Friday (just as last Friday) sees the highest intraday recovery/rally. A temporary bottom has formed on Thursday at Nifty 7832 which has acted as Support to propel a Pull-Back from extremely oversold levels.Pull-Back levels are placed at 9589-10131-10674. India VIX, the Fear gauge of the Market, made a record high of 73 before subsiding a little. India VIX is likely to cool down this week, as SEBI has finally woken up to take some action and restrict Short Selling. Stringent rules for Shorting are likely to reduce the Volatility and give a positive impetus to the bleeding Market. One needs to remember that the above measures will have its effect in the short term, but in the intermediate term; Market is likely to continue with its Bearish stance.


Technically Speaking :-

Sensex opened the week at 33103, made a high of 33103, low of 26714 and closed the week at 29915. Thus it closed the week with a massive loss of 4188 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 9587, made a high of 9602, low of 7832 and closed the week at 8745. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 1210 points.On the daily charts, both the indices have formed a big White Body candle on Friday, completing a Morning Star Pattern. It is a Bullish Reversal pattern, but not very strong as Friday's white body is closing in the lower half of Wednesday's Black body. On the weekly timeframe, both the
indices have once again formed a Big Opening Black body Marubuzo with a very long lower shadow. The long lower shadow indicates buying at lower levels. Thus daily candlestick study indicates a Pull-back in the immediate short term.

Both the indices crashed and breached the previous week's low amidst sharp increase in Volatility; making an intermediate bottom at Sensex 26714 and Nifty 7832. After a Bullish candlestick pattern, a short term Pull-Back has started. The Pull-Back levels are placed at Sensex 32658-34494-36330 and Nifty 9589-10131-10674.

Both the indices will face strong Resistance Zone due to the confluence of Bearish Gap be tween Sensex 34769-35109 and Nifty 10159-10294, along with 50% Retracement (Sensex 34494 and Nifty 10131).
This week, both the indices have closed well below the Short term average of 20dma (Sensex -35911 and Nifty - 10513), Medium term average of 50dma (Sensex - 39101 and Nifty 11479) and even the Long term average of 200dma (Sensex - 39133 and Nifty - 11574). Thus the Trend in the Short term, Medium term as well as Long term Timeframe continues to remain Bearish.

MACD and Price ROC are both negative and continue in Sell mode. Both RSI (25) and Stochastic Oscillator %K(13) are highly oversold in daily as well as weekly timeframe and hence the current bounce can continue for a day or two. ADX (61) suggests Downtrend is over matured and may now undergo consolidation. Directional Indicators are in Sell mode as +DI is below -DI. OBV continues in Sell mode, making lower top lower bottom formation. Bollinger Band continues in Sell mode. MFI (18) suggests Negative Money Flow and oversold. Thus Oscillators are suggesting a bearish bias, but the immediate short term bounce can continue.

Options data for March series indicate highest Call Open Interest at 10000 followed by 9500 and highest Put build-up is at the strike of 8500, followed by 8000. Thus Options data suggests a trading range with Resistance at 9500 and Support at 8500.

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