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*AAKASHAYA PATRA WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW:* 01.03.2020


The Market suffered its worst week since the 2008 meltdown. As the Coronavirus spreads its wings across the world, the Financial Markets across the globe have crashed and are entering Bear territory. Even though the Coronavirus has still not entered the Indian territory; it now seems more a question of 'when' and not 'if'.With every Support being broken, the intensity of fall kept on increasing.The Market crashed by an unprecedented 7% for the week, thereby negating Trends across all time-frames. Strong Trendline Support on the weekly timeframe is at Nifty 11013; a breach of which can take the Nifty all the
way down to higher bottom at 10637. In the extreme short term, the indices are highly oversold and hence a dead cat bounce cannot be ruled out.But any pull-back should not be construed as a reversal, but rather an opportunity to short.

Technically Speaking :-

Sensex opened the week at 41037, made a high of 41037, low of 38219 and closed the week at 38297. Thus it closed the week with a massive loss of 2873 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 12012, made a high of 12012, low of 11175 and closed the week at 11201. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 879 points. On the daily charts, both the indices have formed a big Opening Black body Marubuzo after a big Gap down opening. Even on weekly timeframe, both Sensex and Nifty have formed a very Big Opening Black body Marubuzo after a gap down opening. Thus candlestick study on daily as well as weekly timeframe, suggest continuation of strong bearishness in the near term.

Both the indices fell on Friday with a big Bearish Gap. Thus Sensex 39087-39423 and Nifty 11384-11536, will now act as strong Resistance. Also this Gap can be called as a Measuring Gap,which gives a bearish target of Sensex 36801 and Nifty 10674. Immediate strong Support for both the indices comes in the form of weekly Trendline which will fall at Sensex 37400 and Nifty 11013. A break of the above Support can lead the Sensex to test its previous higher bottom of 35987 and Nifty 10637.This week, both the indices crashed and closed well below the Short term average of 20dma (Sensex - 40674 and Nifty - 11934), Medium term average of 50dma (Sensex - 41102 and Nifty 12088) and even the Long term average of 200dma (Sensex - 39447 and Nifty - 11687). Thus the Trend in the Short term, Medium term as well as Long term Timeframe has turned Bearish.

MACD and Price ROC are both negative and continue in Sell mode. RSI (24) indicates strong Bearish momentum. Stochastic Oscillator %K (06) is below %D and hence is in Sell mode. But more importantly, both RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are strongly oversold and a bounce from current levels cannot be ruled out. ADX (24) suggests Downtrend gaining strength. Directional Indicators are in Sell mode as +DI is below -DI. OBV continues in Sell mode, making lower top lower bottom formation. Bollinger Band continues in Sell mode. MFI (28) suggests Negative Money Flow. Thus Oscillators are suggesting a bearish bias.

Options data for March series indicate highest Call Open Interest at 12000 and highest Put build-up is at the strike of 11000. Thus Options data suggests a wide trading range with Resistance at 12000 and Support at 11000.

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