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29.03.2020
*AAKASHAYA PATRA WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW:* 


After receiving a severe drubbing (almost 5000 points on Nifty) for the past five weeks, finally the Market heaved a sigh of relief, as the Bulls made a comeback. After forming big black candle
formations for past five weeks, this week the indices registered a big white body candle. The current upward move is just a Pull-Back and not a Reversal; therefore the Long Term Downtrend continues. The relevant Pull-Back levels are placed at 9390-9970-10551 for the Nifty. In case, the Nifty closes the March month below 8432, then that will open the door for a downside target of 6110.

Technically Speaking :-

Sensex opened the week at 27608, made a high of 31126,low of 25638 and closed the week at 29815. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 100 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 7945, made a high of 9038, low of 7511 and closed the week at 8660. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 85 points.On the daily charts, both the indices have formed an average Black Body candle on Friday,completing a Bearish Meeting Lines Pattern. Interestingly, on the weekly charts, both the indices have formed a big White body candle, which is completing a Bullish Meeting Lines pattern.

Since the Weekly candles are bigger, hence the weekly timeframe will have greater implications. Daily pattern will fail, once Sensex closes above 31126 and Nifty above 9038. Thus, weekly candlestick pattern suggests Bullish bias over daily candlestick pattern.After falling for more than 16000 points on Sensex and 4900 points on Nifty, the Market experienced
a Pull-Back which has lasted for more than 3 days. Pull-Back started after Sensex made an
intermediate bottom at 25638 and Nifty 7511. The Pull-Back levels are placed at Sensex 31993-33956-35918 and Nifty 9390-9970-10551. One needs to remember that the Trend remains down and the current upward move is just a Pull-Back and not a Reversal of Trend; hence one should use this Pull-Back to short.

In case the current Pull-Back gathers steam then, both the indices will face strong Resistance
Zone at the Bearish Gap between Sensex 34769-35109 and Nifty 10159-10294. On the downside,if Nifty closes the March month below 8432, then it can go all the way down to 6110.
This week, both the indices have closed well below the Short term average of 20dma (Sensex -32886 and Nifty - 9613), Medium term average of 50dma (Sensex - 37735 and Nifty 11066) and even the Long term average of 200dma (Sensex - 38842 and Nifty - 11480). Thus the Trend in the Short term, Medium term as well as Long term Timeframe continues to remain Bearish.

MACD and Price ROC are both negative and continue in Sell mode. RSI (36) suggests Bearish
Momentum. Stochastic Oscillator %K (28) is above %D and hence in Buy mode. ADX (61) suggests Downtrend is over matured and may now undergo consolidation. Directional Indicators are in Sell mode as +DI is below -DI. OBV continues in Sell mode, making lower top lower bottom formation. Bollinger Band continues in Sell mode. MFI (21) suggests Negative Money Flow. Thus Oscillators are suggesting bearish bias.

Options data for April series indicate highest Call Open Interest at 10000 followed by 9000 and highest Put build-up is at the strike of 7500, followed by 8000. Thus Options data suggests a trading range with Resistance at 9000 and Support at 8000.

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