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15.03.2020
*AAKASHAYA PATRA WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW:* 
It was an unprecedented 'Black Swan' event for the Global Markets as the Coronavirus tightened its grip across the globe; and finally the WHO declaring it as a Pandemic.By Friday morning, Markets had crashed by more than 22%; following the Global meltdown. It was panic all around as the Indices hit 10% lower circuit and the Market had to be halted for 45 minutes. Post that the Market saw a sharp recovery, as the Nifty recovered almost 1600points (almost 18%) from its lows. In the process, Market has made a panic bottom at 8550, but the question still remains "will it hold?"
Since 2004, both the indices had taken support at the critical 100 WeeksMA and 50MonthsMA almost more than dozen times, except for one occasion i.e. in 2008. The Market crash this week, had broken both the above mentioned critical levels and the Market found itself in a similar scenario as 2008. In 2008, 100MonthsMA came to the rescue and this time too there was a confluence of various Retracements like the 38.2% Long Term Retracement,50% of Intermediate Retracement, Golden Ratio 161.8% of immediate Rounding Top along with 100 MonthsMA at around 8500; which came to the Markets rescue. As per the above confluence theory, a panic Bottom has been formed at 8550. But the Trend still remains Bearish & the resultant upward price movement is just a Pull-back which can go upto 10035-10493-10950.

Technically Speaking :-

Sensex opened the week at 36950, made a high of 36950, low of 29388 and closed the week at 34103. Thus it closed the week with a massive loss of 3473 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 10742, made a high of 10751, low of 8555 and closed the week at 9955. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 1034 points.

On the daily charts, both the indices have formed a very Big White Body candle, which has resulted in a Piercing Line formation along with previous day's candle. This is a Bullish Reversal pattern. On the weekly timeframe, both the indices have formed a Big Opening Black body Marubuzo with a very long lower shadow. The long lower shadow indicates strong buying at lower levels.Thus daily candlestick study indicates a Pull-back in the immediate short term.Both the indices made a panic bottom at Sensex 29388 and Nifty 8555 which was at the confluence of various Retracements along with the 100MMA. Also since Momentum Oscillators on both Sensex and Nifty were extremely oversold, a Pull-Back was long overdue. Both the indices started a Pull-back and the relevant levels are placed at Sensex 34310-35830-37351 and Nifty 10035-10493-10950.Both the indices will face strong Resistance at the Bearish Gap between Sensex 36950-37011 and Nifty 10751-10827. The above Gap is significant as it is not only on daily timeframe but also on weekly timeframe.

This week, both the indices have closed well below the Short term average of 20dma (Sensex - 38758 and Nifty - 11353), Medium term average of 50dma (Sensex - 40225 and Nifty 11816) and even the Long term average of 200dma (Sensex - 39379 and Nifty - 11653). Thus the Trend in the Short term, Medium term as well as Long term Timeframe continues to remain

Bearish.MACD and Price ROC are both negative and continue in Sell mode. RSI (24) suggests highly oversold levels. Stochastic Oscillator %K (20) is above %D and hence is in Buy mode. Importantly, both RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are highly oversold in daily as well as weekly timeframe and hence the current bounce can continue for a day or two. ADX (48) suggests Downtrend is now matured and may now undergo consolidation. Directional Indicators are in Sell mode as +DI is below -DI. OBV continues in Sell mode, making lower top lower bottom formation. Bollinger Band continues in Sell mode. MFI (13) suggests Negative Money Flow and oversold. Thus Oscillators are suggesting a bearish bias, but the immediate short term bounce can continue.

Options data for March series indicate highest Call Open Interest at 10000 followed by 10500
and highest Put build-up is at the strike of 9000, followed by 9500. Thus Options data suggests a
trading range with Resistance at 10500 and Support at 9500.

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