02.09.2019
AAKASHAYA PATRA WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW:
Past week once again saw the Sensex taking Support at the strong
Support Zone (36813-35966) which has been defined by the Sensex which is due to
the confluence between 100WMA and Weekly Trend line. Three days of the past
week saw the Sensex taking Support at the above mentioned Confluence zone.
Interestingly, last four weeks have also seen Nifty finding Resistance at the
200dma (11209). Only if Nifty is able to close above 11209, it will move higher
to test the strong Resistances at 11399-11771..
Technically Speaking :-
Sensex opened the week at 37363, made a high of 37731, low of 36492
and closed the week at 37332. Thus it closed the week with a gain of 631
points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 11000, made a high of
11141, low of 10756 and closed the week at 11023. Thus the Nifty closed the
week with a gain of 194 points.
On the daily charts, both Sensex and Nifty have formed a small white
body Spinning Top. On the weekly chart, Nifty has formed a Bullish Harami and
Sensex has formed a Bullish Harami Cross which is a Bullish Reversal pattern.
On the monthly charts, both the indices have formed a Bullish Doji which
requires a confirmation. Thus Candlestick study suggests a Bullish bias in the near
term. This week again saw the Sensex take Support at the Confluence Zone
(36813-35966) of strong Weekly Trend line Support (36813) and 100 Weeks MA
(35966). This Confluence Support Zone was tested three times this week before
the market staged a bounce back. Current Rally will gather steam once Nifty
closes above the 200dma i.e.11209. Above this Nifty will run into a strong
Weekly Bearish Gap Resistances at 11399-11398, followed by another stronger Weekly
Bearish Gap 11771-11797. Interestingly Sensex does not have the above mentioned
Gaps.Only a close above the upper Weekly Bearish Gap 11771-11797 will signal a
Reversal in Bearishness; till then any pull-back will be treated as Selling
opportunity by the Market.
This week, both the indices closed above the short term average of
20dma (Sensex - 37149 and Nifty - 10976). Both indices continue to remain below
the medium term average of 50dma (Sensex - 38157 and Nifty - 11341) and even
the long term average of 200dma (Sensex - 37430 and Nifty -11209). Thus the
Trend in the short term Timeframe has turned Bullish whereas the Trend in the medium
term as well as long term Timeframe remains Bearish.MACD is in Buy mode and so
is the Price ROC. RSI (47) suggests Bearish momentum. Stochastic Oscillator %K
(67) is below %D and hence is in Sell mode. ADX (32) suggests Downtrend is
consolidating. Directional Indicators are in Sell mode as +DI is below -DI. MFI
(43) suggests Negative Money Flow. OBV has started making higher top higher
bottom formation. Sell signal in Bollinger Band has been negated this week.
Thus Oscillators are suggesting a mixed bias.
Options data for September series indicate highest Call Open
Interest at 11700 and the highest Put build-up at the strike of 10800. Thus
Options data suggests a trading range with resistance at 11700 and support at
10800.
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