23.06.2019
*AAKASHAYA PATRA WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW:*
Nifty still remains in a Trading Range but the downward drift continues.
On a weekly basis, Nifty is down by around 98 points but if one considers the
intraday scenario then the Nifty movement on each day is at least more than
double. Every attempt at moving higher is thwarted by strong Selling and as a
result, the Short Term Trend has turned Bearish.
Despite the inability of the Nifty to sustain at higher levels, we
still remain in Trading Range between 12103-11614. This week successfully
tested the lower boundary on practically every day except on Friday. A Bullish
follow-up was expected on Friday, but a lack of it raises questions about the
ability and willingness to move higher. A downward break of the Trading Range
will lead the Nifty to test the strong weekly Support in the form of Bullish
Gap between 11591-11426
Technically Speaking :-
Sensex opened the week at 39514, made a high of 39638, low of 38870
and closed the week at 39194. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 258
points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 11844, made a high of
11844, low of 11625 and closed the week at 11724. Thus the Nifty closed the
week with a loss of 98 points.
On the daily charts, both Sensex and Nifty have formed a real Black
body candle which when combined with Thursday's candle, forms a Bearish Harami,
but it has little significance as it has formed in Downtrend. On the weekly
charts, both the indices have again formed a small Black body candle.
Interestingly, last four weeks candle bodies lie within the trading range of
the candle formed five weeks back. Technically last four weeks can be termed as
'Rest' weeks. Thus Candlestick pattern study suggests a volatile week but with
a slight Bearish bias.Both the indices are moving in a Trading Range between
Sensex 40312-38651 & Nifty 12103-11614. The lower end of the Trading Range
was successfully tested and defended four times this week. In case of a break
on the downside, the indices will move towards testing of the critical Weekly
Bullish Gap. A bullish breakout will see Sensex reaching Cup & Handle
target of 41053 and Nifty 12232.
Both the indices have left behind a Bullish Breakaway Gap not only
on the daily time-frame but also on weekly time-frame. This Bullish Gap between
Sensex 38570-38001 and Nifty 11591-11426 will now act as strong Support Zone.Both
the indices had completed a Bullish Cup & Handle pattern in March 2019 and
now they are heading towards their target of Sensex 41053 and Nifty 12232. Also
a Rounding Bottom got completed,which has a target of Sensex 44687 & Nifty
13516.Both the indices have closed this week below the short term average of
20dma (Sensex – 39600 and Nifty - 11869). Both the indices continue to remain
above the medium term average of 50dma (Sensex - 38935 and Nifty 11687) as well
as the long term average of 200dma (Sensex – 36922 and Nifty - 11095). Thus the
Trend in the medium term and long term Timeframe continues to be Bullish,
whereas the Trend in the short term Timeframe has turned Bearish.
MACD and Price ROC are both in Sell mode. RSI (48) suggests Bearish
momentum. Stochastic
Oscillator %K (25) is above %D and hence in Buy mode. ADX (26)
suggests Uptrend losing strength.
Directional Indicators are still in Buy mode as +DI is above -DI.
MFI (45) suggests Negative Money Flow. Thus Oscillators are suggesting a
bearish bias.
Options data for July series indicate highest Call Open Interest is
at 12000 and the highest Put
build-up is still at the strike of 11000. Thus Options data suggests
a trading range with resistance at
12000 and strong support at 11000.
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