01.02.2019
AAKASHAYA PATRA WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW:
The
Market movement last week can best be described as volatile but the trajectory
remained upwards. Since last Friday, all six days can be classified as Rest
days, as the trading range for each day falls within the Trading Range of 23rd
May (Nifty 12041-11614). On Friday, the Nifty fell after testing the upper end
of the Trading Range. Considering weakness in the global markets, an
upward
breakout to the Trading Range looks very challenging in the near term. But in
case if it does, then Nifty will move towards short term target of 12232. A
more likely scenario is the one where Nifty remains sluggish to weak. A bearish
break of the Trading Range will lead the Nifty to test the weekly Bullish Gap
(11591-11426) which will act as strong support. Mid-cap 100 Index (17959) is
just 0.5% away from a Bullish breakout. A bullish breakout will trigger a
mid-cap rally which will not only provide great relief to market participants
but also narrow down the wide divergence between large caps and mid-caps
TECHNICALLY
SPEAKING :-
Sensex
opened the week at 39536, made a high of 40122, low of 39353 and closed the
week at 39714. Thus it closed the week with a gain of 280 points. At the same
time the Nifty opened the week at 11855, made a high of 12039, low of 11812 and
closed the
week
at 11922. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 78 points.On the daily
charts, both Sensex and Nifty have formed a Black body candle with a longer lower
shadow which suggests buying at lower levels. On the weekly charts, both the
indices have formed a small White body candle with longer upper shadow. Thus
Candlestick pattern study suggests a Bullish bias.Both the indices are moving
in a Trading Range defined by the Price range of 23rd May i.e.between Sensex
40124-38651 and Nifty 12041-11614. A bullish breakout will see Sensex reaching Cup
& Handle target of 41053 and Nifty 12232. A bearish breakout will take the
indices to support of Weekly Bullish Gap.Both the indices have left behind a
Bullish Breakaway Gap not only on the daily time-frame but also on weekly
time-frame. This Bullish Gap between Sensex 38570-38001 and Nifty 11591-11426 will
now act as strong Support Zone as 20dma and 50dma also lie inside this Gap.Both
the indices had completed a Bullish Cup & Handle pattern in March 2019 and
now they are heading towards their target of Sensex 41053 and Nifty 12232. Also
a Rounding Bottom got completed,which has a target of Sensex 44687 & Nifty
13516.Both the indices are above the short term average of 20dma (Sensex -
38534 and Nifty - 11579) and medium term average of 50dma (Sensex - 38628 and
Nifty 11602). Both the indices continue to remain above the long term average
of 200dma (Sensex - 36812 and Nifty - 11069). Thus the Trend in the long term
Timeframe continues to be Bullish, whereas the Trend in the medium term as well
as short term Timeframe has again turned Bullish. MACD and Price ROC are both
positive and in Buy mode. RSI (61) suggests strong Bullish momentum. Stochastic
Oscillator %K (85) is above %D and hence in Buy mode. ADX (39) suggests Uptrend
gaining further strength. Directional Indicators are in Buy mode as +DI is
above -DI.MFI (81) suggests Positive Money Flow. Thus majority of Oscillators
are suggesting a Bullish bias.
Options
data for June series indicate highest Call Open Interest is at 12500 and the
highest Put build-up is still at the strike of 11500. Thus Options data
suggests a trading range with resistance at 12500 and strong support at 11500.
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