12.05.2019

AAKASHAYA PATRA WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW:

HUMPTY DUMPTY HAD A GRATE FALL Market saw a big Gap down opening on Monday and the entire week was spent in bearishness. Bears held an iron-grip on the Market as the Indices breached important support levels with ease. Amidst increasing
Volatility, Trend in the Short term as well as Medium term has turned Bearish.As a result the indices are now positioned just above the Bullish Gap Support level of Nifty 11227-11180.The fall in the Market was on exexpected lines as the Market breadth had become too narrow to hold the Market any further. But what was surprising is the swiftness, magnitude and ease with which the Market fell. We are just 5 trading sessions away from the Exit polls and it seems the Market wants to remain light going into the event

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING :-

Sensex opened the week at 38719, made a high of 38835, low of 37370 and closed the week at 37462. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 1231 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 11605, made a high of 11657, low of 11251 and closed the week at 11278. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 434 points.On the daily charts, both Sensex and Nifty have formed small Black body Spinning Tops on Thursday and Friday. On the weekly timeframe,both the indices have formed a Big Rally from Sensex 35287 and Nifty 10585. The relevant Correction levels are placed at Sensex 37883-37387-36891 and Nifty 11371-11221-11071. Both the indices have currently taken support at the 50% Retracement level. Last week finally, a Bearish breakout was witnessed for the narrow Trading Range of Sensex 1000 points and Nifty 300 points. As expected, both Sensex and Nifty breached many levels and are now nearing Strong Support Zone between Sensex 37230-37106 and Nifty 11227-11180 which are the Bullish Gaps. As a result of such sharp fall, many Oscillators have turned Oversold and hence we can expect a bounce-back upto 11550-
11600 levels.

Any Upward Rally will run into a strong Resistance Zone which has been created this week in the form of Bearish Gap between Sensex 37719-38920 and Nifty 11630-11699.Both the indices have closed below the short term average of 20dma (Sensex - 38647 and Nifty -11612) as well as medium term average of 50dma (Sensex - 38017 and Nifty 11425). Both the indices continue to remain above the long term average of 200dma (Sensex – 36678 and Nifty - 11033). Thus the Trend in the long term Timeframe is still
Bullish, whereas the Trend in the medium term as well as short term Timeframe has turned Bearish.

MACD and Price ROC are both negative and in Sell mode. RSI (35) suggests Bearish momentum. Stochastic Oscillator %K (05) is below %D is oversold and in Sell mode.ADX (29) suggests trend losing strength. Directional Indicators are in Sell mode as +DI is below -DI. MFI (38) suggests Negative Money Flow. OBV has started making lower top lower bottom formation. Thus majority
of Oscillators are suggesting a Bearish bias.

Options data for May series indicate highest Call Open Interest has now shifted lower to 12000 and the highest Put build-up is still at the strike of 11000. Thus Options data suggests a trading range with resistance at 12000 & support at 11000.

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