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05.05.2019

AAKASHAYA PATRA WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW:


Market is at a very interesting showcase where both the indices after reaching life-highs have entered a Trading Range of 300 Nifty points (11850-11550). As the country approaches last 3 phases of Current Lok Sabha Elections and the Results date 23rd May just more than 2 weeks away, Market will witness further increase in Volatility. Interestingly the current Market Upward movement is led by very few frontline stocks; market breadth is very narrow. There is very high possibility that the above mentioned Trading Range gets taken away in the coming weeks, possibly on the downside unless the lagging Index Mid-Cap 50 gives a positive breakout
and starts moving upwards. Bulls are keeping their fingers crossed and are hoping for a rally across the board before the Date
23rd May 2019.
 
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING :-
Sensex opened the week at 39056, made a high of 39189, low of 38753 and closed the week at 38963. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 104 points.At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 11748, made a high of 11789, low of 11655 and closed the week at 11712. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a loss of 42 points.On the daily charts, both Sensex and Nifty have formed neutral formations for all three working days of the week. Two were Dojis followed by Black body Spinning Top on Friday.On the weekly timeframe, again both the indices have formed a Black body Spinning Top. Thus both daily as well as weekly candlestick patterns
are suggesting a neutral bias.For the fifth week running, both the indices continue to remain in a Trading Range of Sensex 39500-38500 i.e. 1000 points and Nifty 11850-11550 i.e. 300 points.The top end of the Trading Range is governed by the Bearish candlestick pattern formed at life-high levels which continues to act as Resistance.Once the indices overcome this Resistance then we can expect Sensex to scale pattern target of 41053 and Nifty 12232. A break on the downside which has multiple bottoms at lower boundary, can take the indices down to test the strong Support at the higher bottom of Sensex 37667 & Nifty 11311 Followed
by Bullish Gap between Sensex 37230-37106 and Nifty 11227-11180 which is a strong Support zone.Both Sensex&Nifty Completed
a Bullish Flag pattern whose targets are at Sensex 40873 and Nifty 12211 as long as Sensex remains above 38460 and Nifty above 11549.Previously, when the indices gave a Bullish breakout for the Trading Range of 4 months; a Bullish Cup & Handle pattern got completed,whose targets falls at Sensex 41053 and Nifty 12232. Both Sensex and Nifty are in sideways consolidation and once that is over, both the indices will be headed for the above mentioned targets.Both the indices again tested the short term average of 20dma (Sensex - 38872 and Nifty - 11671) successfully and managed a close above it. Both the indices continue to remain above the long term average of 200dma (Sensex - 36637 and Nifty - 11022) and even the medium term average of 50dma (Sensex -
37790 and Nifty - 11354). Thus the Trend in the long term, medium term and short term Timeframe continues to remain Bullish.
 

MACD is in Sell mode whereas Price ROC is positive and in Buy mode. RSI (57) still suggests Bullish momentum. Stochastic Oscillator %K (58) is above %D and hence in Buy mode. ADX (34) suggests UpTrend still very strong. Directional Indicators are in Buy mode as +DI is above -DI. MFI (59) suggests Positive Money Flow. OBV still suggests Uptrend. Thus majority of Oscillators
are suggesting a Bullish bias.
 

Options data for May series indicate highest Call Open Interest is now at the strike of 12500 whereas the highest Put build-up is at the strike of 11000. Thus Options data suggests a wide trading range with resistance at 12500 & support at 11000.


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