28.04.2019
AAKASHAYA PATRA WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW:
Both Sensex and Nifty have entered a Bullish consolidation phase post
registering life-high levels. Both the indices are in a Trading Range and the
boundaries are defined by the 20dma on the lower side which continues to act as
strong Support and the Life-high levels which continue to act as Resistance or
the upper boundary of the Trading Range. A bullish breakout will take the Nifty
to achieve the target 12211-12232, whereas a bearish breakout is likely to take
the indices to test the lower bottom at 11311. Interestingly, even as both the
indices are enjoying life-high levels,mid-caps and small-caps are lagging way
behind. Mid-cap 50
Index, is still more than 16% away from their life-high levels and a
potential bullish breakout is round the corner, which can propel
various mid-cap stocks to a more justifiable valuations.
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING :-
Sensex opened the week at 39158,made a high of 39262, low of 38518 and
closed the week at 39067. Thus it closed the week with a loss of 73 points. At
the same time the Nifty opened the week at 11727, made a high of 11796, low of
11564 and closed the week at 11754. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain
of 2 points. On the daily charts, both Sensex and Nifty has made a white body
candle and also a Bullish Harami pattern, but it cannot be given significance
as it is in sideways consolidation. On the weekly charts, both the indices have
formed a Spinning Top (Sensex - black body, Nifty – white body) formation. Long
lower shadow indicates Buying witnessed at lower levels. Thus more than daily
candlestick, weekly candlestick pattern study is suggesting a Bullish bias.
Both the indices continues to remain in a Trading Range of Sensex
39500-38500 i.e. 1000 points and Nifty 11850-11550 i.e.300 points. The top end
of the Trading Range is governed by the Bearish candlestick pattern formed at life-high
levels which continues to act as Resistance. Once the indices overcome this
Resistance then we can expect Sensex to scale pattern target of 41053 and Nifty
12232. A break on the downside which has multiple bottoms at lower boundary,
can take the indices down to test the strong Support at the higher bottom of
Sensex 37667 and Nifty 11311 followed by Bullish Gap between Sensex 37230-37106
and Nifty 11227-11180 which is a strong Support zone. Both Sensex and Nifty
completed a Bullish Flag pattern whose targets are at Sensex 40873 and Nifty
12211 as long as Sensex remains above 38460 and Nifty above 11549. Previously,
when the indices gave a Bullish breakout for the Trading Range of 4 months; a
Bullish Cup & Handle pattern got completed, whose targets falls at Sensex
41053 and Nifty 12232.Both Sensex and Nifty are in sideways consolidation and
once that is over, both the indices will be headed for the above mentioned targets.
Both the indices tested the short term average of 20dma (Sensex -38827 and
Nifty - 11655) successfully for the entire week and even closed above it. Both
the indices continue to remain above the long term average of 200dma (Sensex -36587
and Nifty - 11007) and even the medium term average of 50dma (Sensex - 37612
and Nifty - 11298).
Thus the Trend in the long term, medium term and short term Timeframe
continues to remain Bullish. MACD is in Sell mode whereas Price ROC is positive
and in Buy mode. RSI (60) still suggests strong Bullish momentum. Stochastic
Oscillator %K (51) is above %D and hence in Buy mode. ADX (34) suggests Up Trend
still very strong. Directional Indicators are in Buy mode as +DI is above -DI.
MFI (66) suggests Positive Money Flow. OBV continues to make higher top higher bottom
formation in line with the Bullish trend. Thus majority of Oscillators are
suggesting a Bullish bias.
Options data for May series indicate highest Call Open Interest is
now at the s trike of 12000 whereas the highest Put build-up is at the strike
of 11000. Thus Options data suggests a wide trading range with resistance at
12000 & support at 11000.
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