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AAKASHAYA PATRA WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW:

31th march 2019

It was expected that the market may remain Sideways or Retrace slightly in the near term but that was not to be. This Market refuses to Correct and it did exactly the same as it bounced back from above the Support zone (Nifty 11227-11180) in the early part of the week. The bounce-back was so sharp that the massive Upward Rally resumed and currently we are within striking distance of Life-High Levels (Sensex - 38939 & Nifty -11760). As a note of precaution, one needs to keep in mind that the Oscillators are in overbought territory for more than two weeks and hence a minor Correction cannot be ruled out. Even if Market corrects, there is a good possibility that the Mid-caps and Small-caps may join the party and that will be good news for market participants.

TECHNICALLY SPEAKING :-

Sensex opened the week at 38016, made a high of 38748, low of 37667 and closed the week at 38672. Thus it closed the week with a gain of 508 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 11395, made a high of 11630, low of 11311 and closed the
week at 11623. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 167 points.On the daily charts, both the indices have formed a Dragon-Fly Doji which has bearish connotations
if formed in an uptrend. On the weekly charts, both Sensex and Nifty formed a big closing White body Marubozu. This big white candle negated the formation of Bearish Doji formed as last weeks candle. Thus more than daily, weekly candlestick study suggests a Bullish bias in the near term.
The Trading Range of four months finally saw a Bullish Breakout occurring two weeks back.Nifty has already achieved target of Nifty 11416. Now the Nifty is headed towards previous life high levels (11760) and in the process also achieve a higher target of 11644.Market has left behind a Bullish Gap between Sensex 37230-37106 and Nifty 11227-11180 which is also a confluence zone as it coincides with 38.2% Retracement level of 11195. Thus this Bullish Gap will act as strong Support zone. Also the Gap can be called as Measuring Gap. The target as per that will be Sensex 39049 & Nifty 11822.
This week, both the indices closed above all the Moving Averages viz. the long term average of 200dma (Sensex - 36282 and Nifty - 10926), the medium term average of 50dma (Sensex – 36700 and Nifty - 11013) and also the short term average of 20dma (Sensex - 37546 and Nifty - 11291).Thus the Trend in the long term, medium term and short term Timeframe remains Upwards.

MACD as well as Price ROC are positive and in Buy mode. RSI (71) suggests strong Bullish momentum. Stochastic Oscillator %K (91) has just gone above %D and hence it is a fresh Buy signal. ADX (34) suggests UpTrend getting stronger. Directional Indicators are in Buy mode as +DI is above -DI. MFI (87) suggests Positive Money Flow. OBV continues to make higher top higher bottom formation in line with the Bullish trend. Bollinger Band continues with its Buy signal. Majority of Oscillators are suggesting a Bullish bias. But since Momentum Oscillators are into overbought
territory, one should not be surprised if the price retraces a bit.

Options data for April series indicate highest Call Open Interest is now at the strike of 12000 whereas the highest Put build-up has now moved higher at the strike of 11500. Thus Options data suggests a trading range with resistance at 12000 & support at 11500.

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